Find base-rate data to calibrate the threat

Look up how often the feared outcome actually happens to people in similar situations.

Why it works

Availability heuristic-driven probability inflation can be partially corrected by base-rate information. When you have vividly imagined a plane crash, it feels far more likely than statistics justify. Exposure to the actual frequency — from a credible source — provides the outside-view reference that counteracts the inside-view inflation of anxiety.

How to do it

1. Identify the specific feared outcome and frame it as a question with a quantifiable answer.
2. Look up an actual base rate: "what percentage of X leads to Y?"
3. Compare the number to your subjective estimate and update accordingly.

Evidence

Inside-view vs. outside-view reasoning is a well-studied aspect of judgment under uncertainty; base-rate neglect is a documented contributor to probability overestimation. Using outside data to correct inside-view estimates is a calibration technique with support from decision science. (mechanistic)

Decision science supports the mechanism; application to anxiety-specific decatastrophizing in clinical settings is a reasoned extension rather than a separately trialed protocol step.

Sources

• Kahneman & Tversky (1979), prospect theory — base rate neglect and probability distortion

Common mistake

Searching for the data in a way that finds worst-case examples ("plane crash survivors") rather than representative base rates, which confirms the fear rather than calibrating it.